Population and Cancer Outlook
Population and projected new cancer cases for every state, metro area and county through 2040, by cancer type. Choose a cancer type and a year, then select a state on the map to drill into its counties.
Growth in new cases by state
Fastest growing metro areas
States
Methodology
The Outlook applies cancer incidence rates to projected population, the standard method behind most market projections. Every input is a free public download from the U.S. government.
- Base population: Census Bureau county population estimates by five year age group and sex, Vintage 2024.
- Population projection: each county's age and sex groups follow the Census Bureau 2023 National Population Projections (middle series), adjusted by half of the county's growth gap against the nation from 2020 to 2024, capped at 1.5% a year.
- Incidence rates: CDC U.S. Cancer Statistics national rates for 2019 to 2023 by age group, sex and cancer site, scaled for each state so that expected cases match the state's observed cases in 2019 to 2023.
- Projected cases: projected population times the state calibrated rate, summed to county, metro area and state. Metro areas are Census metropolitan statistical areas.
Rates are held at 2019 to 2023 levels, so the change shown comes from population growth and aging alone. Cases are new invasive cancers (in situ breast is excluded). County figures for small counties carry more uncertainty than state and metro figures. Lymphoma combines Hodgkin and non Hodgkin lymphoma.
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